Examining Interpretation Strategies for Multiple Forecast Visualizations with Two and Four Forecasts

Visualization techniques evaluated in Experiments 1 and 2. Columns show the five visualization types: median plots, 95% confidence intervals, standard deviation (SD) bands, density plots, and hypothetical outcome plots (HOPs). Rows display forecast agreement conditions (high vs. low). Experiment 1 (top) includes two forecast distributions, and Experiment 2 (bottom) extends to four forecast distributions under both agreement levels.
Abstract
Multiple forecast visualizations (MFVs) present curated sets of forecasts to support decision-making under uncertainty. However, the research community knows little about how people interpret and integrate competing forecasts. In this study, we investigate the strategies individuals use when predicting hypothetical future events with MFVs across five visualization types (median, 95% CIs, standard deviation intervals, density plots, and hypothetical outcome plots) and multiple probability distributions in two preregistered experiments (n = 500 each). Analysis of 18 participant strategies and open responses shows that whereas many participants attempted to visually average across forecasts, others adopted a winner-takes-all approach (e.g., selecting a single forecast as the most likely outcome), which deviates from rational agent expectations. We also observed reliance on visual artifacts, such as intersection points or end caps. These findings underscore the complexity of interpreting a range of forecasts and help explain why individuals may privilege particular predictions in real-world decision contexts.
Materials
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Authors
Kristi Potter
Spencer C. Castro
Citation
Thumbnail image for publication titled: Examining Interpretation Strategies for Multiple Forecast Visualizations with Two and Four Forecasts
Examining Interpretation Strategies for Multiple Forecast Visualizations with Two and Four Forecasts

Lace Padilla, Racquel Fygenson, Connor Wilson, Kristi Potter, and Spencer C. Castro. Proc. CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems—CHI. 2026. DOI: 10.1145/3772318.379096

PDF | Preprint | DOI | Supplement | Preregistration | BibTeX | CHI Best Paper Honorable Mention


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